Tidal Lagoon Power Generation Scheme in Swansea Bay - White Paper PDF Download Link

Tidal Lagoon Power Generation Scheme in Swansea Bay

A report on behalf of the Department of Trade and Industry and the Welsh Development Agency

Executive Summary
Tidal Electric Limited (TEL) has proposed the construction of a 60MW “tidal lagoon” power generation scheme in Swansea Bay. TEL has estimated that the lagoon could be constructed for £81.5M and generate power at a cost of ~3.5p/kWh.

Renewable energy generated at this cost would be commercially very attractive and both the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and the Welsh Development Agency (WDA) have separately undertaken reviews to assess the claims made. The two reviews, undertaken independently, arrived at the same main conclusion.

This was that the generation costs of the proposed tidal lagoon would be substantially higher than TEL’s estimate. The most significant differences between TEL’s proposal and the Reviewers’ assessment are as summarised in the following table:

Thus, the total construction cost for the proposed tidal lagoon scheme is likely to be around £234M, compared with the TEL estimate of £81.5M (i.e. an increase by a factor of 3.6), and the lagoon is only likely to generate around 66% of the energy projected by TEL.

The cost of energy from the proposed lagoon is therefore estimated to be more than 4 times greater than that presented by TEL.

On this basis the cost of energy from the proposed lagoon would be at least 17p/kWh at 8% discount rate which conforms with results from previous studies of tidal lagoons undertaken by others.

The Reviewers see little prospect for reducing the cost of energy from this concept through replication, innovation or experience as it would uses standard engineering principles and mature technologies. The cost of the lagoon is dominated by the materials cost where there is little prospect for cost reduction and much scope for cost increase.

There are also proposals to construct tidal lagoons in other locations, such as off the coast of North Wales. Whilst this review has not studied these other proposed schemes, the issues surrounding the Swansea Bay scheme are sufficient to cast doubt on the economic viability of the tidal lagoon concept for the foreseeable future.

The few possible locations with a higher tidal range offer a greater annual power output, and larger lagoons may offer some economy of scale. Studies of tidal barrages, however, have shown that the economies of scale are relatively minor whereas the potential for unacceptable impacts tends to increase with size.

Should TEL’s engineering solutions prove deliverable, then the economics of all the potential tidal barrage schemes around the UK would also be significantly improved.


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Modeling Distributed Electricity Generation in the NEMS Buildings Models - White Paper PDF Download Link

Modeling Distributed Electricity Generation in the NEMS Buildings Models
by Erin Boedecker, John Cymbalsky, and Steven Wade

Distributed generation refers to the production of electricity in a decentralized facility—in the present context, a building. This “nontraditional” electricity source has the advantage of allowing the capture of the “waste” heat from generation, thereby offsetting the energy requirements of other end uses and potentially lowering total energy requirements across multiple end uses (i.e., the combined requirements for electric energy, space heating energy, and water heating energy).

This paradigm contrasts with central generation, where waste heat is often a negative externality that is emitted directly into the biosphere. In addition to utilizing heat energy that would otherwise be wasted, on-site generation has the additional efficiency benefit of avoiding the transmission and distribution losses associated with centralized generation and, possibly, the need for upgrades to transmission and distribution grids.

Currently, the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) buildings models characterize several distributed generation technologies: conventional oil or gas engine generation, combustion turbine technologies, and newer, still developing technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV), fuel cells, and microturbines.

This paper describes the modeling techniques, assumptions, and results for the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 reference case. In addition, a series of alternative simulations are described, and key results for distributed generation are presented.

Introduction
Recently, distributed generation technologies have received much attention for the potential energy savings and reliability assurances that might be achieved as a result of their widespread adoption. Fueling the attention have been the possibilities of international agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, electricity sector restructuring, high power reliability requirements for certain activities, and concern about easing transmission and distribution capacity bottlenecks and congestion.

This paper presents the modeling methodology, projected market penetration, and impact of distributed generation with respect to offsetting future electricity needs and carbon dioxide emissions in the residential and commercial buildings sector in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000) reference case.

Also, a series of alternate simulations are presented with key distributed generation results. These alternatives include more optimistic assumptions regarding the cost of the newer distributed technologies, favorable compensation rates for grid sales (net metering), and aggressive tax incentives for selected technologies. Projections of future levels of distributed generation and estimated impacts on fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are presented.

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Biomass for Electricity Generation PDF WHITE PAPER DOWNLOAD LINK

Biomass for Electricity Generation

by Zia Haq

This paper examines issues affecting the uses of biomass for electricity generation. The methodology used in the National Energy Modeling System to account for various types of biomass is discussed, and the underlying assumptions are explained. The Energy Information Administration’s estimation of biomass resources shows that there are 590 million wet tons of biomass available in the United States on an annual basis; 20 million wet tons (enough to supply about 3 gigawatts of capacity) are available today at prices of $1.25 per million Btu or less. The average price of coal to electric utilities in 2001 was $1.23 per million Btu.

Introduction
The U.S. economy uses biomass-based materials as a source of energy in many ways. Wood and agricultural residues are burned as a fuel for cogeneration of steam and electricity in the industrial sector. Biomass is used for power generation in the electricity sector and for space heating in residential and commercial buildings.

Biomass can be converted to a liquid form for use as a transportation fuel, and research is being conducted on the production of fuels and chemicals from biomass. Biomass materials can also be used directly in the manufacture of a variety of products.

In the electricity sector, biomass is used for power generation. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) reference case,1 projects that biomass will generate 15.3 billion kilowatthours of electricity, or 0.3 percent of the projected 5,476 billion kilowatthours of total generation, in 2020.

In scenarios that reflect the impact of a 20-percent renewable portfolio standard (RPS)2 and in scenarios that assume carbon dioxide emission reduction requirements based on the Kyoto Protocol,3 electricity generation from biomass is projected to increase substantially.

Therefore, it is critical to evaluate the practical limits and challenges faced by the U.S. biomass industry. This paper examines the range of costs, resource availability, regional variations, and other issues pertaining to biomass use for electricity generation.

The methodology by which the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) accounts for various types of biomass is discussed, and the underlying assumptions are explained. A major challenge in forecasting biomass energy growth is estimating resource potential. EIA has compiled available biomass resource estimates from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),4 Antares Group, Inc.,5 and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

This paper discusses how these data are used for forecasting purposes and the implications of the resulting forecasts, focusing on biomass used in grid-connected electricity generation applications.

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